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These experts have their eyes on gross home product, or GDP — the worth of all items and services produced within a country during a specific interval — which is a key metric used to gauge financial progress and recessions. In the primary three months of 2022, the US GDP dropped by 1.4%, likely resulting from a spike in COVID-19 cases and rising inflation. The conflict in Ukraine and shakiness in the inventory market only piled on to broader financial woes. When GDP falls during two quarters again-to-again, technically the nation is in a recession. (The National Bureau of Financial Research usually makes the official call, but it hasn’t yet.)

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