公開日:2021/10/09 / 最終更新日:2021/10/09

The supply of electricity to Britain this winter will be ‘tight’ and there is a greater risk of blackouts, the National Grid warned today – as soaring energy prices leave families facing sky-high bills.

Industry leaders called for ‘urgent action’ after the National Grid said electricity supplies would come under strain amid the boom in the price of natural gas – which the UK relies on to generate 42% of its power.

Government engineers say Britain has enough energy supply to meet demand and does not believe there will be winter blackouts – but the amount the country will have in reserve at peak times will be the lowest in six years.

It is the latest sign of a grim winter outlook caused by dramatically rising inflation and a supply chain crisis threatening shortages of food including season favourites such as gammon, pigs in blankets and turkey.

Exacerbating the energy crisis was the fire at a connector station in Kent last month, which will cut the amount of energy that can be imported via the 1FA undersea cable – which runs under the English Channel to Calais – by half. 

By October 23, 1GW (gigawatts) of power should be restored following repairs, but the full capacity of 2GW will not be reached until more work due to last until March next year. 

Gas is in high demand due to the reopening of the global economy, https://ladesblog.com/ colder temperatures, and reduced wind and solar output due to unfavourable weather conditions.

Meanwhile, Russia – a major exporter – has slashed the amount it sends to Europe.

As Britain faced the prospect of energy supply struggling to keep up with soaring demand during a bleak winter, it also emerged:

British house prices rose by the most in almost 15 years with their climb to new record high levels ton continue;Omni Energy has said it expects to become the 13th UK energy supplier to go bust this year; Labour shortages and transportation issues continue, with Nestle the latest business giant to warn of potential product shortages including Christmas staple Quality Street; Intel has warned that a shortages of chips is set to continue into Christmas and ‘there may be a few IOUs under the Christmas trees around the world this year; Council task could rise by up to five per cent each year for the next three years in order to pay for long awaited social care reforms; MailOnline research reveals the cost of supermarket staples such as pasta, tinned food and meats have all risen by up to 44% as inflation grips supermarkets; Nearly two-thirds of UK manufacturers plan to raise their prices in the run-up to Christmas due to rising inflation, according to the British Chambers of Commerce;  The cost of wholesale electricity is rocketing in response to an astonishing spike in the price of natural gas, which accounted for 42% of power generation in Britain in September 2021 (as shown by this graph) 

This graphic – from today’s National Grid report and covering September this year – shows how Britain imports far more energy from abroad than it exports 

Coal now produces just 2% of the UK’s energy – with 40% of it coming from zero carbon sources following massive investment in renewables (figures cover September 2021) 

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The National Grid said the amount of excess electricity capacity expected above peak energy demand was forecast at 3.9GW for winter this year, or 6.6% of capacity, down from 4.8GW, or 8.3%, last winter. 

This forecast is lower than a winter margin forecast of 4.3 GW made in July this year and also the lowest margin level since the winter of 2016/17. 

However, Fintan Slye, executive director of ESO – part of the National Grid – insisted the system would manage. ‘We are confident that there will be enough capacity available to keep Britain’s lights on,’ he said.  

Forward power prices in Britain are expected to be higher this winter than last year due to the surge in gas prices. 

The National Grid said that any days when the difference between the amount of energy Britain needs and the extent of available supply was particularly small could see electricity prices to increase even further. 

It came as  was today accused of turning energy ‘into a weapon’ by hinting he will pump more gas into Europe if Brussels approves Russia’s controversial pipeline bypassing . 

Wholesale gas prices surged to a record 400p yesterday – a 37% increase in 24 hours and 600% up on January – but dropped to around 274p after the Russian President’s intervention. Millions now face paying between £500 and £800-a-year more for their energy in 2022.

Russia’s manipulation of the market hits prices in the UK because Britain’s own production in the North Sea and the Irish Sea has decreased massively over the past 20 years, forcing the Government to now import more than half of its gas from Norway, Holland and Russia through long distance pipelines. 

A small amount comes as liquid natural gas, mainly by ship from the Middle East – but these supplies have also been hit by growing post-pandemic demand in Asia, further raising prices.

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The pain caused by sky-high gas prices came as Britons face the biggest squeeze on their finances for more than a decade because of inflation, rising prices and looming multiple tax increases all coupled with product shortages caused by gaps in global supply chains and a lack of HGV drivers.

Putin is accused of deliberately withholding gas supplies as leverage with the EU, who he wants to sign off on his new Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, run by state energy Gazprom, that bypasses Ukraine.

Sending the price of a therm tumbling by £1 yesterday afternoon, Putin said pointedly: ‘Let’s think through possibly increasing supply in the market, only we need to do it carefully. Settle with Gazprom and talk it over’.

In response Jennifer Granholm, the US secretary of energy, said the US is watching Russia ‘carefully’, adding: You don’t want to see energy made into a weapon’. 

Tory MP Sir Iain Duncan Smith told MailOnline Russia was ‘bullying’ the EU and the UK should be exploiting shale gas supplies to get ‘completely clear of any dependency’.

‘Most of our gas is either home produced or from Norway.

We are not dependent on Russian gas in the same way as Europe is, especially Germany,’ he said.

‘But we should be allowing more explanation. It should be a reminder that we are sitting on a huge supply of shale gas. It is an absurdity not to want to tap into that.

Either we make ourselves dependent on countries like Russia, or we actually start looking for more gas supplies. You need back up to ensure we have always got energy when you need it, and you are not reliant on imported gas which is very expensive.’

Sir Iain said: ‘Russia is playing games with the Europeans and they are determined to open Nordstream 2.  That would bypass the Eastern Europeans.

It will allow them to bully everyone from Ukraine right the way through using their ability to shut off gas without shutting it off to the Europeans.’ He added: ‘The eastern Europeans are feeling completely let down by the European Commission.’

The National Grid said the incident at a connector station in Kent had cut the amount of energy that can be imported via the 1FA undersea cable by half (pictured is the aftermath of the incident on September 16)

A map showing the various electricity cables that bring in electricity to the UK from the rest of Europe.

The IFA link is seen bottom right in green 

This graphic shows how electricity is brought in from France via the 1FA link.

Converter stations are needed to switch converts direct current to alternating current or the reverse, while the connector links it with the National Grid 

Russia’s ploy emerged hours after French fishermen, angry at the delay in granting licences to plunder British waters, threatened to blockade food and wine destined for the UK from France before Christmas having already threatened to cut power to Jersey. 

Rising energy prices could add 30% to bills next year, experts warn, and there increasing concerns about inflation, leaving UK households facing a further financial squeeze because of rising prices, labour shortages and gaps in global supply chains. 

A lack of HGV drivers led to farmers pouring milk down the drain today because of a lack of transport with pig farmers fearing they must kill 120,000 animals on their farms because abattoirs lack the butchers needed to carve them.

As a gloomy winter approaches, petrol is still scarce and prices are up, food prices are increasing, house prices are growing and taxes such as national insurance and council tax are also about to go up all faster than wages.

The cost of electricity and gas is also hitting power hungry industries such as steel, glass and chemicals, meaning consumers will soon be paying more for a huge number of products including cars, building materials and even toilet roll.

Intel, the world’s largest maker of computer chips, has said that the shortage caused by covid shutting Asian factories will not stabalise until 2023 and means electronic gifts for Christmas will be short in supply.

Boss Pat Gelsinger said: ‘There is some possibility that there may be a few IOUs under the Christmas trees around the world this year’.

Wholesale gas prices surged to a record 400p yesterday – a 37% increase in 24 hours and 600% up on January – but dropped to around 274p after the Russian President’s intervention

Putin said that Russia was ready to increase gas supplies, before raising the controversial pipeline his country wants to build, cutting out Ukraine

Map showing points of origin and destination of the Nord Stream pipe (solid line) and Nord Stream 2 pipeline (dotted line) between Russia and Germany.

Putin hoped Nord Stream 2 would be finished two years ago, allowing Russia to bypass Ukraine in the south, which carries 50% of gas from Russia out via Poland

Analysis of price rises in the last year shows the cost of a second-hand car has risen more than £1,600, a tank of fuel is up more than £10 and the price of a pint of beer is creeping close to £4

Exclusive research for the Daily Mail by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) also yesterday revealed how inflation will cost the typical family of four an extra £1,800 by the end of this year.

Meanwhile, a retired couple can expect to see living costs rise by more than £1,100, and a lower income couple could be stung by nearly £900

<div class="art-ins mol-factbox news halfRHS" data-version="2" id="mol-a8124290-2762-11ec-a46d-8f473e24ca34" website Grid warns electricity supplies will be tight this year